Economy

Olive oil and table olives in 2015/16

The analysis of the market data for the 2014/15 and 2015/16 crop years and the changes with respect to the estimates released in November 2015

International Olive Council

Olive oil and table olives in 2015/16

Olive oil In November 2015, the estimates for 2015/16 put world output at 2 988 500 t but according to the latest figures supplied by countries, it will be more than 3 225 000 t (Chart I). Put differently, it will be 33 pc higher than in 2014/15 (+790 500 t). This increase is concentrated largely in EU producer countries like Spain, where production will reach almost 1 400 000 t (+65 pc on the season before), and Italy where it will total
470 000 t, equating with a 112 pc increase on the level of 2014/15 when the harvest (220 000 t) was the worst in 20 years. Increases are also recorded in Greece with a production figure of 310 000 t (+3 pc) and Portugal with 100 000 t (+65 pc). As a whole, EU production will total 2 287 000 t, up by 852 500 t on the season before. Production levels are also higher for other IOC member countries such as Algeria (+6 pc), Argentina (+317 pc), Egypt (+19 pc), Iran (+30 pc, Jordan (+26 pc), Libya (+16 pc) and Morocco (+8 pc). The opposite is the case of Tunisia, where production is lower than in 2014/15 (−59 pc), Turkey (−11 pc), Israel (−20 pc) and Albania and Lebanon (−5 pc each).

According to the data, world consumption will come to 3 012 000 t in 2015/16, rising by 6 pc versus 2014/15. Chart
II reports the ranking of the world’s leading consumer countries on the basis of the averages for recent crop years.
Though still provisional, world trade figures report total exports of some 763 000 t. The EU/28 leads the export ranking with a share of more than 68 pc of the world total. Next in line come Tunisia, Morocco, Turkey, Syria, Argentina and Chile, with other countries bringing up the rear with smaller volumes. World imports (823 500 t) look set to outstrip exports. A breakdown shows the United States in the lead (300 000 t), followed by the EU/28 (132 500 t), Brazil (66 500 t), Japan (60 000 t), Canada (38 500 t), China (31 000 t), Australia (24 000 t) and Russia (21 000 t). Smaller import volumes are recorded for the rest of the countries.

Table olives In 2015/16, world production of table olives could hit one of its highest levels ever, reaching 2 755 000 t, which represents a 10 pc increase on 2014/15 (+257 000 t). In the EU producer countries, it is expected to be 4 pc lower but with variations in individual countries since production will be higher in Spain (+10 pc = +53 100 t), Italy (+19 pc) and Portugal (+14 pc) but lower in Greece (−40 pc) where it drops from 249 000 t in 2014/15 to 150 000 t in 2015/16. In the other IOC member countries, table olive production is higher overall (+13 pc), chiefly due to higher levels in Algeria, Argentina, Egypt, Iran, Jordan and Morocco, while it remains unchanged in Lebanon and goes down in Turkey, Albania and Israel.

World consumption of table olives looks set to reach 2 609 500 t, up by 4 pc on 2014/15 levels. Listed in descending order, the top consumer countries are Egypt (360 000 t), Turkey (327 500 t), Algeria (231 500 t), the United States (200 000 t), Spain (190 000 t), Syria (125 000 t), Italy (119 000 t) and Brazil (104 000 t). Elsewhere, consumption volumes are below 100 000 t.

The figures for world table olive imports in 2015/16 (still provisional) are expected to stand at around 665 000 t, i.e. 4 pc more than the season before. The data point to an increase of almost 17 pc in imports by EU producer countries and of 4 pc by the other IOC member countries.

World exports in 2015/16 are expected to be approximately 11 pc higher than in 2014/15. The decrease in EU producer countries is offset by the 23 pc increase in the other IOC member countries, led by Egypt (+43 pc), Morocco (+14 pc) and Argentina (+58 pc). Turkey reports similar export levels to 2014/15.

International Olive Council

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