At this point in the year it is still too early to judge the accuracy of these estimates and the figures that the Council of Members will examine at the end of November will be more solid, unless exceptional weather conditions intervene.
The IOC member countries as a whole estimate a production of 2 882 000 t, which would be 94% of the total production worldwide for the 2018/19 crop year, but an 8% year-on- year decrease compared to the previous crop year. The forecast for EU producing member countries indicates an output of 2 207 000 t (+1.1%), with Spain in the lead with up to 1 550 000 t, 23.4% higher than last year. However, other EU countries will see decreases, in Italy, with first estimates coming in at 270 000 t (37%); in Greece, at 240 000 t (30.6%); and in Portugal, at 130 000 t (3.6%).
Output in other IOC member countries is forecasted at 675 500 t, for a year-on-year fall of 28.9% compared to the previous year. Within this group of countries, Turkey expects to harvest 183 000 t, which would be a 30.4% decrease compared to the previous crop year, followed by Morocco with 145 000 t, in this case an increase of 3.6%; Tunisia with 120 000 t, a decrease of 57.1%; Algeria with 76 500 t, a decrease of 7.3%; Jordan and Lebanon with 24 000 t, increases of 17.1% and 41.2% respectively; Argentina and Egypt with 20 000 t, a decrease of 54% and 28.6% respectively.
Production will stay stable or fall slightly in other member countries. Consumption in IOC member countries could reach 2 050 000 t. Upcoming Newsletters will provide further information regarding the forecasts for this crop year.
Photo by Giorgio Sorcinelli